Peter Sinclair & Felix Kramer
2010: Year of the Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle
Soon we'll be driving safe, affordable, highway-capable plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) and all-electric vehicles (EVs) from the world's major carmakers and some brash start-up companies. The first cars will arrive in selected markets this year. Next year, people in many states, provinces and countries will finally be able to simply go into dealer showrooms and buy them. Some sceptics, engulfed by the reality of industry progress, now fall back to ask, "Will any but the early adopters buy them?" Of course, it's too soon to tell. We expect that plug-ins' comparative advantages and social benefits combined with initial subsidies will eventually lead to their full competitiveness on features and price, broad market penetration, and eventual dominance.
This year, in the early-adopter state of California, we can replace our Toyota Prius aftermarket PHEV conversion with a new PHEV such as the Chevy Volt. For local driving, we'll likely replace our Toyota Camry HEV with a 100-mile-range EV such as the Nissan LEAF or CODA sedan. Check out the PHEV listing at http://www.calcars.org/carmakers.html and Plug In America's tracker at http://www.pluginamerica.org/plug-in-vehicle-tracker.html .
The auto industry's giant marketing machines will help immeasurably in putting plug-in cars as drivers' next choice. Already, it's often no longer necessary to explain "plug-in hybrid" to most people. Instead we ask, "Have you've seen ads for the Chevy Volt?" Then we say "That's a PHEV." Then, if they want, we explain how they work and their benefits! Here's Peter Sinclair's video...
We still have to combat misinformation
In a world where stray comments gain instant credibility and mindshare, we see periodic campaigns and isolated efforts to raise questions about vehicle electrification. We still encounter those who think it's business-as-usual for fossil fuels while we wait for some "technology breakthroughs" or vast infrastructure. In fact, plug-ins, built with today's batteries, charging mainly at home at night, can arrive as fast as carmakers can build them. We still hear from those who, intentionally or not, mistakenly position the strategy to "displace petroleum with electricity" as a competitor instead of a complement to essential efforts to conserve by improving conventional vehicles' efficiency and reducing their use. We haven't heard the last from advocates who propose vast expansions of liquid/gaseous fuels -- natural gas, biofuels or hydrogen fuel cells -- as alternatives rather than supplements to electricity.
We've barely encountered the first volleys from fossil fuel suppliers
Taken together, these companies are by far the world's most powerful industry. They're also the most destructive and deadly, factoring in all the consequences of extraction, production, transportation and combustion, plus the impact on every nation's public and private-sector integrity, economy, and national security. With so many stakeholders waiting for any hiccup, false start or overstatement, we all need to be ready to defend our strategy, whose strengths are predicated on "solutions good enough to get started," a transformed cleantech economy, and electricity's fundamental advantages: "cleaner, cheaper, and domestic."